- The Virginia Democratic Exit Polls: Barring any big surprises–namely, a Hillary upset or very close second–tonight’s statistics will be tomorrow’s story. And I’ve got a hunch that most of the media attention will focus on Virginia, an increasingly purple state that Dems hope to pick up next November.
There are two demographics to flag: a) the commonwealth’s white voters and b) today’s Republican/Independent crossover participants.
Because Obama typically wins more than 80 percent of the black vote, the media has an irritating (if understandable) tendency to credit his victories in states with sizable black populations solely to his “bloc” support among African-Americans–an analysis that, even when statistically supportable, makes it seem as if the analyst is dismissing the entire outcome. There’s a risk that could happen tonight in Virginia. In 2004, black voters made up 33 percent of the commonwealth’s Democratic primary electorate–meaning that Obama only needs 36 percent of the white vote to win. But what if Obama wins the white vote, too? That’s a much more interesting story–especially because pre-primary polls show Clinton leading the subgroup 49 to 41. If Obama runs strong among whites in the delegate-rich ring of D.C. suburbs in northern Virginia, he could very well surpass Clinton–and earn a day of headlines saying that he too can win in states with broader demographics. It would rebut a key Clinton charge (that Obama excels mainly in activist-based caucuses) and bode well for Ohio and Texas, which, like Virginia, are microcosms of the larger electorate.
Republicans and Independents may be even more important than whites in shaping the new narrative. Virginia is the first open primary since Super Tuesday–both Maryland and D.C. are closed to registered party members–so if Obama crushes Clinton among non-Democrats, reporters will likely read it as a sign of general election strength. And pay attention to which party attracts more Independents overall. If the Dems come out ahead–and Obama wins the swing vote–it’ll augur well for his potential chances next November against John McCain.
Wisconsin: The Badger State hosts the next major primary a week from today–and Clinton has been giving off mixed signals about whether she plans to compete. According to the conventional wisdom, Wisconsin is largely seen as Obama country–thanks, as Ben Smith puts it, to “big college campuses, a primary open to independents, the ineffable nature of a state that elects Russ Feingold, and the latest polls.” While Clinton is spending tonight in El Paso, Texas, Obama is already in Madison with a full day of stops in Janesville, Waukesha and Racine ahead of him. But the race could be closer than the pundits expect. “I don’t think you can really give a leg up to anybody between the two of them,” said Mike Tate, who ran Howard Dean’s Wisconsin campaign in 2004, in today’s Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “There are scenarios where Barack wins and where Hillary wins.” Meanwhile, there are early signs that Clinton isn’t abandoning Wisconsin altogether. She’s already launched a positive health care ad in the state, and the campaign just announced that Bill will stump Thursday in Milwaukee, Madison and La Crosse. Whether this is merely an effort to maximize her delegate tally without looking like she tried and failed (see: South Carolina) or the start of an actual effort largely depends, I think, on tonight’s results. If Clinton can score any surprises–a closer-than-expected silver in Virginia would work–then expect a renewed interest in cheese, brewskis and the Green Bay Packers. If not? More time in Texas and Ohio.
Mike Huckabee’s Margin in Virginia: In the latest CNN delegate estimate, McCain leads Huckabee 723 to 217, with only about 1,000 delegates left to be awarded–which means Huckabee would have to win basically every remaining delegate to reach the 1,191 needed to clinch the nomination. But while most of the Republican party has accepted reality, Huckabee hasn’t. “I didn’t major in math,” he has said. “I majored in miracles.”
Even miracles are about to get less likely. Tonight, McCain is expected to expand his lead by about 110 delegates–Virginia, with 63, is winner take all–making it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to get the nod. Sure, Huck has every right to run as a “sparring partner” until McCain hits 1,191, but expect calls for his withdrawal to increase in volume and intensity starting tomorrow. His best hope for saving face (other than a win)? A surprisingly close second in Virginia. In the latest SurveyUSA poll, McCain’s lead has narrowed to 11 points–plunging from 32 two days earlier. It’s a testament to Huckabee’s “near-constant TV presence, never-say-die support among evangelicals and FairTaxers and position as the sole remaining McCain alternative,” as Jonathan Martin notes. A close silver won’t be enough to kickstart a Huckabee comeback, but it may be enough to keep him keeping on.
