The general’s diversionary tactic had been carefully orchestrated. On that morning, like every morning since the war began, White House, Pentagon, State Department and CIA officials had gathered before dawn to plot the “spin” for the day. Administration officials understand that the United States is engaged in a PR war as well as a real one. Saddam Hussein’s strategy, they know, is the same one that worked for Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam: to bleed the U.S. military until the American people give up.
The PR model is a political campaign. Every morning, the administration settles on a “message of the day.” For instance, when Iraq broadcast pictures of tortured American POWs, the message was “Saddam will be punished for war crimes.” White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater tests the message at his late-morning briefings. By refusing to allow in cameras, Fitzwater can experiment with his rhetoric and see how it plays with reporters. The message is then fine-tuned for the later State Department and Pentagon briefings, which are on camera and thus more likely to make the evening news.
“Talking points” are faxed almost every day to party leaders, business executives and religious figures friendly to the administration. “Don’t forget to mention these points,” one memo instructed, “whether it is at a cocktail party or a board meeting.” The most effective tools are the videos of high-tech bombs scoring bull’s-eyes on Iraqi targets. The images left unseen are just as important. The administration has banned cameras from recording the return of body bags to American bases. If bad news must be aired, the usual military briefers–who tend to be anxious, tight-lipped officers–are pushed aside, and the more confident, expansive senior commanders–Schwarzkopf or Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell–step in.
The chief spinner, of course, is President Bush. On a tour of military bases last week, Bush cheered the families of servicemen by predicting victory. “We are on course. We are on schedule,” he said. But he also preached sacrifice. Recognizing that a bloody ground war is inevitable, the president wants to prepare Americans for the cost. His rhetoric in the State of the Union address about the “hard work of freedom” was meant to signal the public that dead soldiers would be coming home soon, possibly in large numbers.
Will Americans be willing to pay the price? “When casualties start mounting, that’s when congressional support will start sliding,” says Rep. Bill Richardson, Democrat from New Mexico. In the Vietnam War, once the body count climbed above 10,000 in 1967, opponents of the war outnumbered supporters. Some polltakers say that Americans will put up with serious casualties–for a time. “As long as the war is definable, achievable, and is seen as reasonably short, support will stand up,” says independent pollster Andrew Kohut. Already there are worrisome divisions. While four out of five Americans back Bush’s conduct of the war, only one out of two blacks do. With black political leaders arguing that blacks will do a disproportionate amount of dying, the war threatens to become a divisive racial issue. And though the gender gap closed when the war began, support is fragile among women. Bush’s macho talk has offended some. “Women aren’t interested in sending their sons and husbands to their deaths because Bush feels the need to kick some ass,” says a close adviser to Bush, who has warned the chief executive to tone down his bluster.
The message of sacrifice has not played well in the American electorate for more than a decade. Jimmy Carter was pilloried for preaching the polities of less. Ronald Reagan flew high by promising that Americans could have it all, and the consumer society of the 1980s believed him. Indeed, in some ways the war is a diversion from pressing problems at home. Bush’s State of the Union was short on domestic initiatives, and Congress is not likely to fill the void. By staying glued to the latest smart-bomb video on CNN, Americans can conveniently forget the country’s yawning federal deficit, escalating crime, dropping SAT scores and deteriorating economy. Only when the images turn to dead GIs will reality set in. For the president’s PR machine, the “daily message” could easily get lost in the stark images of combat. The spinmeisters may face a hard choice between showing the true face of war–or opening a credibility gap that could come back to haunt them.
