Consider the progress of Al Qaeda and affiliated terror groups over the past three years. For a decade they had attacked high-profile American targets only–embassies, a naval destroyer, the World Trade Center. Once the United States mobilized against them, and got the world to join that fight, what have they hit? A discotheque, a few synagogues, a couple of restaurants and hotels, all soft targets that could not ever be protected, and all outside the Western world. As a result, the terrorists have killed mostly Muslims, which is marginalizing them in the world of Islam.
Every few months we hear of a new “message” from Al Qaeda and analysts ponder what it portends. By now surely it is clear that Al Qaeda can produce videotapes but not terrorism. In fact, their poorly produced tapes, threatening spectacular attacks, are becoming a joke, much like Saddam Hussein’s promises to fight “the mother of all battles.”
In political terms they have fared even worse. Support for violent Islam is waning in almost all major Muslim countries. Discussions from Libya to Saudi Arabia are all about liberalization. Ever since September 11, when the spotlight has been directed on these societies and their dysfunctions laid bare to the world, it is the hard-liners who are in retreat and the moderates on the rise. This does not mean that there will be rapid reform anywhere–there are many obstacles to progress–but it does suggest that the moderates are not running scared anymore.
All religious extremists need enemies to thrive. Christian fundamentalists used to rant against Jews and Catholics until that became politically impossible. Now they warn of the takeover of the country by abortionists, gays and secular humanists. And even that tactic is wearing thin so the latest round of fund-raising letters have a new enemy–Muslims.
Similarly, Islamic extremists are losing the battle against modernity. Few Muslims want a Taliban-style regime or life. The signs from Afghanistan to Iran to Jordan are clear. So militants are searching for new divisive tactics. Some of them, from Saudi Wahhabi preachers to the Qaeda-affiliated terrorist Zarqawi, have been highlighting another cause–the need to keep the Shiites down. It’s a prejudice that Sunni extremists have long held. But it is unlikely to work.
The persecution of Shiites has been the dirty little secret of the Islamic world. If you ask most Muslims, they will tell you that the Sunni and Shia live harmoniously. This is true in a day-to-day sense. You could live in a Muslim country and be unaware of who is a Sunni and who is a Shia. But this peace is partly the result of the comfortable dominance of the Sunnis, who make up over 85 percent of Muslims worldwide. In many Muslim countries there are almost no Shiites. And where they exist in small minorities, relations are fine–as long as the Shia don’t protest their secondary place. The Shia tend to be somewhat marginalized but often not in a systematic sense. (Saudi Arabia is, as always, the extreme, where Shiites who want to get ahead have been known to become Sunnis. The repression in Saddam’s Iraq was also atypical.) Sectarian violence is rare except that every year around the Ashura commemorations, there are attacks on Shia mourners in South Asia, which is one of the few places where the Shia are allowed to openly perform this ritual. In contrast, Sunnis face no such problems in Iran, the only Shiite-majority country that is also ruled by Shiites. (Iraq will be the next one.)
But by forcing this issue out in the open, Sunni extremists are unlikely to gain much support. It’s one thing for Sunnis to want to maintain their dominance, another altogether to want to kill the Shia. Mainstream Sunnis are more likely to be shocked and embarrassed by the airing of this hatred. Like all bigotry, it’s a difficult one to justify; shining light on it could prove to be an effective disinfectant. It will also remind people how extreme the Islamic radicals are. Highlighting anti-Catholic bigotry discredited the extreme forms of Protestant fundamentalism, so exposing the hatred behind Al Qaeda’s creed will further discredit it.
Most important, by waging war on fellow Muslims, Islamic radicals are proving that the war against terror is not a clash between civilizations, but a clash within a civilization. And the bad guys are losing.
